Picture this : It's 1914 (or so) and the United States -- unknown to itself, but crystal clear to the Allied General Staff --- is about to embark on a major war in aid of the Allies.
A General Staff meeting has been called to plan the design and construction of new weapons to stop the powerful aggression of the Central Powers.
General Farseer : "Our troops can't throw a grenade nearly as far as we would like, and the amount of explosives don't produce much of an effect. Training the men to throw farther is not an effective solution. What we need is a weapon that can fly like a bird over the enemy troops and drop grenades on them from above".
Colonel Sachenwisser : "First, that still wouldn't solve the strength-of-explosive issue. Second, as you know, we are developing the aero-plane, and some of them apparently can remain aloft for an hour at a time, carrying a man and some equipment".
The General Staff nodded agreement in unison. "But", spoke up one mid-level officer, "It would be nice if they flew faster than the 58 miles per hour that ours can. If only we could build some that got up to 75 or --- even better --- 80 miles per hour, and perhaps carry two men, one to operate the aeroplane and one to drop the grenades over the side at the targets; that should handle the problem."
"Excellent idea, Fotherington", said the Chief of Staff, "Let's add those requirements to the specifications. "
"Yes", added Colonel Rockridge, "And let's make sure that what we're throwing has at least ten pounds of high explosive."
"Ten pounds, be dashed ! Let's make it a really massive 25 pound super-grenade ... if an aero-plane can even lift that much off the ground".
"Unrealistic !" "Fantastic nonsense" "Can't be done or our boys in aeronautics would have done it by now". Comments cascaded around the room.
"Can't we add a little length to the wings to provide the additional lift required; if we need to add a few hundred feet to the length of takeoff (Is that the right word?) , that should do it."
LATER THAT WEEK :
Colonel Peltier : "Are we comfortable with all that refined petroleum they carry about ? I hear that it's highly explosive and all it takes is a spark to produce a massive explosion and fire. Second of all, the propelling substance is difficult to come by, all the way from the area east of Egypt. There's none of that stuff in either the United Kingdom or the French Republic, and it requires a complex refining process. It looks to me as though our lads will be exposed to terrible dangers in the event that one of those rough landings they're always making triggers a powerful and destructive explosion. Maybe we should cancel the whole project completely"
"Well, that settles it for me"; "Let's table the idea for more study !"
"Agreed . Also, studies indicate we'll need a larger crew than even the two that have been proposed.
"We would need one to steer the vehicle, to keep the curved aerial wing surfaces aligned properly with the lifting forces, and to keep watch all about to avoid hazards to flight such as other flying machines, the ubiquitous industrial smokestacks, and the flock of birds one of those flying machines ran into last week ;
"... one man to continually take magnetic compass readings and sextant sights to determine the air-ship's position;
"... and the Grenadier to actually sight, aim, and launch the explosive device". Speaking of which, the ferrous metal in the grenade plays havoc with the magnetic compass, rendering navigation almost impossible. I think we're chasing a chimera, men ! I strongly believe that we should pursue other avenues of new weaponry".
"General Buff-Orpington, did you see the requirements report regarding the need for heavy metal armour to encase the aeroplane to prevent stray bullets from piercing the (what's that bloody new French word?), ah, fuselage. Place three men in those vehicles --- assuming the things would even fly with all that weight --- and they are all in grave danger, up in the wide open sky like they are, subject to the effects of both stray and aimed fire"
"Surely, not even the vicious Huns would deliberately aim at a fellow flyer or his vehicle ! The carnage would bring a complete and sudden end to war as we know it. It's not clear which side would yield first".
"Can't we just increase the specifications : mandate a heavier overall total weight, with a carrying capacity of, say, the three men previously discussed, effective shielding for the fuselage, and perhaps a couple of dozen super-grenades."
"The 16 grenades alone (actually the men in the field are now calling them "bombs"), at 25 pounds each, yield a weapons weight of 400 pounds. I'm afraid that's beyond our capacity, General. We're already up to 2000 kilograms total weight ... converting to the French metric measure. It can't even lift itself off the ground. These limits are imposed by the immutable laws of gravity and engineering".
One of the junior officers, still exhilarated from his first flight in an aeroplane, chimed in, "That's easy to remedy ! Specify a heavier total carrying capacity, and the ability to stay in the air for two hours."
"Impossible, lad. We're already stretched beyond our capabilities." Turning to the Director of Planning, "That's what comes of permitting the publication of those scientific-fantasy stories available in the popular libraries. It encourages too much foolish speculation."
"But, General", up chimed Sieur Phillipe de Battenbourg, the young Duke of Elysee, "We must be bold ! Someday, aeroplanes will fly at over 100 miles an hour, and carry hundreds of pounds of destructive chemicals. We will rain devastation on the King's enemies."
"That does it !" The face of the Chief of Staff turned a bright choleric crimson. "I'll have no more of this foolish speculation. Next we'll be going on about those foolish moving-pictures-in-every-home fantasies. The project is cancelled, effective immediately. We've wasted many thousands of pounds sterling and hundreds of staff hours on this, and I refuse to throw good money after bad ; I don't want to hear any more about it !"
... and that was the end of the aero-plane !
It is particularly ironic that a similar scenario could be written about the ups and downs of airship research and production. No one ever reasonably expected that the first models of the "aero-plane" would emerge fully developed, and with no problems. Yet we expect that of our airships.
It is also ironic that the single catastrophe of the Hindenburg, with a loss of life of just over 30 people completely stopped airship development cold in the mind of mankind in 1937, while these days one mid-size passenger aircraft accident kills many times that, several times a year; yet we continue to trudge off optimistically every year to the airports of the world, by the millions, with no fear.
Mission creep *** is the term that describes the way we start off with small expectations and goals, whose boundaries become stretched further and further throughout the development process, a little at a time, until the goal recedes unattainably far into the distance.
Meanwhile, fortunately, our military services continue doggedly through the development phase into operational reality of some very nice machinery. Keep up the good work, lads !
*** SPECIFICATIONS CREEP" The Airship equivalent of 'Mission Creep'
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